Farm exports forecast to rise despite global downturn

Farm export earnings are forecast to rise in 2008-09 and 2009-10, despite the global financial crisis. This and other commodity projections out to 2013-14 are contained in the March issue of Australian commodities released today by Phillip Glyde, Executive Director, ABARE.

"A substantial increase in crop production combined with a significant depreciation of the Australian dollar is expected to support farm export earnings in the short term," Mr Glyde said.

However, total earnings from Australia's commodity exports are forecast to fall by 17 per cent to $162 billion in 2009-10, following an estimated rise of 33 per cent to $196 billion in 2008-09.

This expected fall in the value of total commodity exports mainly reflects a forecast decline of 22 per cent in export earnings from mineral resources to $126 billion in 2009-10 from $161 billion in 2008-09.

Farm exports are forecast to increase by 12 per cent to $30.8 billion in 2008-09, before rising further by a further 4 per cent to $32.1 billion in 2009-10. This updated forecast for 2008-09 represents an upward revision from the forecast of $29.4 billion released by ABARE in the December issue of Australian commodities.

Farm products for which export earnings are forecast to increase in 2009-10 include wheat, barley, canola, lupins, peas, raw cotton, sugar and lamb.

For energy and minerals, significantly lower export earnings are forecast in 2009-10 mainly as a result of expected lower contract prices for bulk commodities and weaker prices for base metals and aluminium.

"The value of energy exports is forecast to fall by 34 per cent to $51 billion in 2009-10, largely driven by sharply lower forecast prices for oil and coal," Mr Glyde said.

For metals and other minerals, export earnings are forecast to decline by 11 per cent to $75 billion in 2009-10. An expected significant fall in prices for Australian iron ore is projected to account for the majority of this decline.

The value of Australian commodity exports is projected to gradually increase from 2010-11. By 2013-14, total commodity export earnings are projected to reach $175 billion in 2008-09 dollar terms.

For media interviews and comment, please contact Dr Jammie Penm, ABARE's Chief Commodity Analyst on 02 6272 2030, mobile 0408 686 219 or email jpenm@abare.gov.au

For free downloads of the March issue of Australian commodities, please visit the ABARE website www.abare.gov.au or phone Publications on 02 6272 2010.

For general media enquiries, contact Kate Filor, Outlook 2009 media coordinator on mobile 0427 917 815.